The Two Criteria of Poker and Catastrophism

The science of Catastrophe and the science of Poker are a bit more difficult than just knowing the odds.

Let me list the catastrophism arguments as I see them. As in "hard" science, there are arguments based not on arithmetic data but on general observations, and contextual arguments that make certain things reasonable and other things unreasonable to all reasonable men.

Of course, this is all well-known to you, but bear with me a moment while I set up the context -- a basis for agreement.

Experiments with many life forms in closed environments show the unsurprising fact that they eventually destroy themselves both by running out of food and by poisoning their environment.

In addition, experiments with higher life forms, such as white rats, show that - as population becomes crowded - the creatures become increasingly antisocial. In short, fighting and wars break out even when the environment supports life very well.

Data is well known for the loss of some elements of the human environment, for example, the dodo bird. And many more creatures and pieces of the Earth, for example, the Mesabi iron deposit that contributed so much to the industrialization of the U.S. (please don't jump in here with taconite. That is beside the point of the consumption of the Mesabi)

It is also a fact that the loss of such environmental elements as the dodo and the Mesabi have not significantly slowed the advance of the economy, the technology, or the living standard. We have done without the dodo and have found other and plentiful sources of iron.

The point is that some human-induced changes in the world are irreversible. That there may be compensations is another subject.

Massive amounts of data are on hand, and coming in daily, showing the degradation of important parts of the Earth. For examples, the erosion of top soil, the reduction of the ozone layer, the depletion of rich mineral deposits, the increase in atmospheric CO2 -- and the list goes on. The presence of large amounts of dangerous wastes - some of it radioactive - poses almost-intractable problems of long-term management, longer term than any human institutions with the possible exception of religious priesthoods.

Most of the data is beyond dispute. Some is controversial. Some is unimportant.

If you are a gambler, and all of us are in some way in our lives, then you know there are TWO criteria for placing a bet, not only one.

The first is the "odds". If the odds are good enough, you go forward - you place a bet. Some of you believe, very reasonably, that the odds of a great human planetary catastrophe are low, negligible, one-in-a- million. Choose your number.

The second is the "stake." If the stake is high, the odds must be more favorable for a bet to be placed.

A five-of-six chance of winning in small-stake poker is worth betting: place your nickels on the table.

A five-of-six chance of survival in Russian roulette - firing a revolver at your head with one round somewhere in the cylinder - is acceptable only if accompanied by a pre-existing suicide compulsion. Or a belief that the bullet can be dodged after the gun is fired.

What is at stake in the ecologic-catastrophism betting is the existence of human society as we now know it. Heaven knows, it has its faults, but its all we've got. If the catastrophe occurs, even in partial degree, the suffering of wars, migrations, disease, and starvation will exceed anything we can imagine. What are the odds? AND what is at stake?

The data - and there is a great quantity - must be evaluated in terms of its consequences. If the loss of a fish is unimportant, even good data showing the loss has little value - the stake is low. If the loss of a fish signifies the loss of an important food source or the death of a sea, even weak data must be given attention. You must consider both the ODDS of the data being right and the STAKE to be lost if the bet is wrongly placed.

In this great game humans play with the planet Earth, the ODDS are unknown but the STAKE is so enormous that you must, at all costs, avoid participation in the game. I won't be here when the cards are turned over. I wish you youngsters - and my grandchild - good luck in the greatest game ever played.

Copyright (c) 1996 Mason A. Clark. May be used without permission for a non-commercial purpose provided no changes are made and this notice is included. Distribution is encouraged. Comments are invited.